Fitch Say Things Have Stablised
International rating agency Fitch Ratings have changed their rating for SA from a negative outlook to a stable one.
What Does That Mean?
While all major rating agencies say that it is not worth it for the biggest investors and funds to take on SA debt they no longer think that things are getting worse and worse (and that’s after mid-year rioting and looting during a pandemic year no less).
This is actually very positive although the rating still remains 3 steps down from investment grade.
Fitch have said that increased revenue generation by SARS, loadshedding not being as bad as expected (yet) and certain positive political aspects (like peaceful elections and failure of certain controversial bills from passing) all factor into their rating and the outlook for what they will be doing with the rating in the future. They also expect increased levels of lockdown but say that they expect these to be brief in addressing the 4th wave.
They also say that they expect the Repo Rate to increase up to 5.5% by 2023 based on the recent start made by the SA Reserve Bank MPC in pushing up the rate. They feel this will help account for inflation and other factors.
It thus seems that Fitch thinks things are still bad but not getting any worse…for now. Who knows? Maybe they will even push the outlook to positive if things continue along this road.